191 lines
8.4 KiB
TeX
191 lines
8.4 KiB
TeX
\documentclass{beamer}
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\setbeamertemplate{navigation symbols}{}
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\usetheme{Antibes}
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\usecolortheme{seahorse}
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\usepackage[czech]{babel}
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\usepackage{csquotes}
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\usepackage{minted}
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\usepackage[backend=biber]{biblatex}
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\title[Expansion of electricity access in Kenya thanks
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to renewable energy sources] % (optional, use only with long paper titles)
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{Expansion of electricity access in Kenya thanks
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to renewable energy sources}
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%\subtitle{} % (optional)
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\author[Štěpán Beran] % (optional, use only with lots of authors)
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{Štěpán Beran}
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% - Use the \inst{?} command only if the authors have different
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% affiliation.
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\institute{Faculty of Information Technology CTU in Prague}
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\date % (optional)
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{9. 12. 2024}
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\subject{BI-SEP}
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% If you wish to uncover everything in a step-wise fashion, uncomment
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% the following command:
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%\beamerdefaultoverlayspecification{<+->}
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\begin{document}
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\begin{frame}[plain]
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\titlepage
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\end{frame}
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\section{Introduction}
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\subsection{Motivation}
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\begin{frame}
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\frametitle{Motivation}
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Electricity consumption nearly perfectly correlates with GDP.
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Emerging economies often rely on fossil fuels as their main energy source which brings known risks and problems:
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\begin{itemize}
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\item reliance on imports from authoritarian regimes \footnote{see history of oil cartels or Russian invasion of Ukraine}
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\item exacerbation of extreme weather events caused by climate change
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\end{itemize}
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\end{frame}
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\begin{frame}
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\frametitle{Motivation}
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\begin{itemize}
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\item Oil crisis' of 1970s-80s had devastating consequences.
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\item The US "shale revolution"~helped satisfy fossil fuel dependent economies and keep oil cheap.
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\item Low incentive to shift => energy inefficient compared to western Europe.
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\end{itemize}
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\begin{figure}[ht!]
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth, height=4.8cm, keepaspectratio]{fig/international-efficiency-2022-map.jpg}
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\label{fig:us-oil}
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\end{figure}
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\end{frame}
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\begin{frame}
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\frametitle{Motivation}
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Princeton's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory\footnote{\url{https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/}} explains that by the late 21st century, assuming anthropogenic global warming of approx. 2°C:
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\begin{itemize}
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\item{\textbf{Very Intense Hurricanes}} The global proportion of tropical cyclones/hurricanes that reach very intense (Category 4 and 5) levels is projected to increase (medium to high confidence)
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\item{\textbf{Overall Hurricane Intensity}} Tropical cyclone intensities globally are projected to increase (medium to high confidence) on average.
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\item\textbf{Sea Level Rise} Human activities have very likely been the dominant cause of sea level rise since at least 1971 which in turn exacerbates coastal inundation risks associated with tropical cyclones.
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\end{itemize}
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\end{frame}
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\begin{frame}
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\frametitle{Motivation}
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Can economies grow without expansion of their reliance?
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\begin{itemize}
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\pause
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\item{Of course they can!} Kenya
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\pause
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\item{But also} Austria, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Kenya, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain and the United Kingdom \footnote{All economies, which have already surpassed their fossil peak.}
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\pause
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\item{Some can not -} Canada, China, Chile, India, Israel, Ukraine, the United States and Peru
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\end{itemize}
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\end{frame}
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\subsection{Hypothesis}
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\begin{frame}
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\frametitle{Hypothesis}
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Hypothesis:
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\begin{itemize}
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\item{\(H_0\)} - There is no positive correlation between share of renewable electricity and access to electricity in Kenya.
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\item{\(H_1\)} - There is correlation between share of renewable electricity and access to electricity in Kenya.
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\end{itemize}
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Verification criteria:
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\begin{itemize}
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\item{\bf{R-squared} \(R^2\)} - \(R^2 \ge 0.7\)
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\item{\bf{Correlation coefficient} \(r\)} - \(\ r \ge 0.7 \)
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\item{\bf{p-value}} - \( \textrm{p-value} \le 0.05 \)
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\end{itemize}
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\end{frame}
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\section{Electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa}
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\subsection{History of investments in electrification}
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\begin{frame}
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\frametitle{History of investments in electrification}
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Major time periods in investments into electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa
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\begin{itemize}
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\item{\textbf{1980s}} - Stop migration from rural to urban areas
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\item{\textbf{late 1980s - 90s}} - High costs and low impact
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\item{\textbf{90s - now}} - Necessary condition to fight poverty
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\end{itemize}
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\end{frame}
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\subsection{Problems with electrification}
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\begin{frame}
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\frametitle{Problems with electrification}
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Electrification of rural areas doesn't come without it's own set of problems such as:
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\begin{itemize}
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\item{\textbf{High upfront cost}} - Connecting to grid as well as off-grid\footnote{Can be chaper than connecting to the grid. Discussed in the paper.}
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\item{\textbf{Lack of productive use}} - Mainly used for home lighting, TVs, etc. Not used enough in agriculture, crafts and services.
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\item{\textbf{Lack of known impacts}} - Funding is based on supposed impacts with very little empirical evidence.
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\end{itemize}
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\end{frame}
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\subsection{Effects found in other countries}
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\begin{frame}
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\frametitle{Findings from electrification in India}
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\begin{itemize}
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\item {Increased time spent studying}
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\item {Increased school enrollment}
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\item {Increased labor supply of both men and women}
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\item {Increased per capita household income and expenditure}
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\end{itemize}
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However most of those benefits accure to wealthier households, while poorer households use electricity to a limited extent.
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\end{frame}
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\subsection{Optimal strategy for electrification in Kenya}
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\begin{frame}
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\frametitle{Optimal strategy for electrification in Kenya}
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Extensive spatial mapping of existing energy infrastructure in Kenya found that:
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\begin{itemize}
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\item{Renewable energy plays a pivotal role in decentralized energy systems allowing energy access in rural areas.}
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\item{Solar power should dominate remote areas separated more than 10km form the grid.}
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\item{Solar generation could make electricity available to 5.98 million people.}
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\item{Hybrid mini-grids could electrify additional 390 thousand people.}
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\item{Diesel generators could cover 390 thousand people.\footnote{Maintenance \& operational costs are significant for a long term solution.}}
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\item{It is cheaper to invest in standalone solar solution for "under-grid"~population.}
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\end{itemize}
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\end{frame}
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\section{Conclusions}
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\begin{frame}
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\frametitle{Findings}
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\begin{figure}[ht!]
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{fig/regression.png}
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\caption{Scatter plot with regression line showing the relationship between electricity access and the share of renewable electricity in Kenya.}
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\label{fig:regression}
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\end{figure}
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\end{frame}
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\begin{frame}
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\frametitle{Findings}
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\begin{itemize}
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\item{\bf{R-squared:}} The coefficient of determination for the regression model is \(R^2 = 0.704\), indicating a strong relationship between the variables.
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\item{\bf{Correlation Coefficients:}}
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\begin{itemize}
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\item{\bf{Electricity access and share of renewables:}} \(r = 0.834\), showing a strong positive correlation.
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\item{\bf{Electricity access and GDP growth:}} \(r = 0.048\), indicating a weak correlation.
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\item{\bf{GDP growth and share of renewables:}} \(r = 0.125\), also a weak correlation.
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\end{itemize}
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\item{\bf{Electricity Access Coefficient:}} The regression coefficient is 0.561, statistically significant with \(\textrm{p-value} < 0.0001\).
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\item{\bf{GDP Growth Coefficient:}} The regression coefficient is 0.177, not statistically significant with \(\textrm{p-value} = 0.505\).
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\end{itemize}
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\end{frame}
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\begin{frame}
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\frametitle{Conclusions}
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While the expansion of renewables correlated with electricity acces in Kenya, there still are problems with expansion of electricity access in Kenya, however
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\begin{itemize}
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\item the absence of fossil fuels is not one of them,
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\item they relate to economically inefficient use and
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\item further research and revision of government plans is needed.
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\end{itemize}
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\end{frame}
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\end{document}
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