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\title[Expansion of electricity access in Kenya thanks
to renewable energy sources] % (optional, use only with long paper titles)
{Expansion of electricity access in Kenya thanks
to renewable energy sources}

%\subtitle{} % (optional)

\author[Štěpán Beran] % (optional, use only with lots of authors)
{Štěpán Beran}
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\institute{Faculty of Information Technology CTU in Prague}
\date % (optional)
{9. 12. 2024}

\subject{BI-SEP}

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\begin{document}

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  \titlepage
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\section{Introduction}
\subsection{Motivation}

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Motivation}
    Electricity consumption nearly perfectly correlates with GDP.
    Emerging economies often rely on fossil fuels as their main energy source which brings known risks and problems:
    \begin{itemize}
        \item reliance on imports from authoritarian regimes \footnote{see history of oil cartels or Russian invasion of Ukraine}
        \item exacerbation of extreme weather events caused by climate change
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Motivation}
    \begin{itemize}
        \item Oil crisis' of 1970s-80s had devastating consequences.
        \item The US "shale revolution"~helped satisfy fossil fuel dependent economies and keep oil cheap.
        \item Low incentive to shift => energy inefficient compared to western Europe.
    \end{itemize}
    \begin{figure}[ht!]
        \includegraphics[width=\textwidth, height=4.8cm, keepaspectratio]{fig/international-efficiency-2022-map.jpg}
        \label{fig:us-oil}
    \end{figure}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Motivation}
    Princeton's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory\footnote{\url{https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/}} explains that by the late 21st century, assuming anthropogenic global warming of approx. 2°C:
    \begin{itemize}
        \item{\textbf{Very Intense Hurricanes}} The global proportion of tropical cyclones/hurricanes that reach very intense (Category 4 and 5) levels is projected to increase (medium to high confidence)
        \item{\textbf{Overall Hurricane Intensity}} Tropical cyclone intensities globally are projected to increase (medium to high confidence) on average.
        \item\textbf{Sea Level Rise} Human activities have very likely been the dominant cause of sea level rise since at least 1971 which in turn exacerbates coastal inundation risks associated with tropical cyclones.
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Motivation}
    Can economies grow without expansion of their reliance?
    \begin{itemize}
        \pause
        \item{Of course they can!} Kenya
        \pause
        \item{But also} Austria, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Kenya, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain and the United Kingdom \footnote{All economies, which have already surpassed their fossil peak.}
        \pause 
        \item{Some can not -} Canada, China, Chile, India, Israel, Ukraine, the United States and Peru
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\subsection{Hypothesis}
\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Hypothesis}
    Hypothesis:
    \begin{itemize}
        \item{\(H_0\)} - There is no positive correlation between share of renewable electricity and access to electricity in Kenya.
        \item{\(H_1\)} - There is correlation between share of renewable electricity and access to electricity in Kenya.
    \end{itemize}
    Verification criteria:
    \begin{itemize}
        \item{\bf{R-squared} \(R^2\)} - \(R^2 \ge 0.7\)
        \item{\bf{Correlation coefficient} \(r\)} - \(\ r \ge 0.7 \)
        \item{\bf{p-value}} - \( \textrm{p-value} \le 0.05 \)
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\section{Electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa}
\subsection{History of investments in electrification}
\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{History of investments in electrification}
    Major time periods in investments into electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa 
    \begin{itemize}
        \item{\textbf{1980s}} - Stop migration from rural to urban areas
        \item{\textbf{late 1980s - 90s}} - High costs and low impact
        \item{\textbf{90s - now}} - Necessary condition to fight poverty
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\subsection{Problems with electrification}
\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Problems with electrification}
    Electrification of rural areas doesn't come without it's own set of problems such as:
    \begin{itemize}
        \item{\textbf{High upfront cost}} - Connecting to grid as well as off-grid\footnote{Can be chaper than connecting to the grid. Discussed in the paper.}
        \item{\textbf{Lack of productive use}} - Mainly used for home lighting, TVs, etc. Not used enough in agriculture, crafts and services.
        \item{\textbf{Lack of known impacts}} - Funding is based on supposed impacts with very little empirical evidence.
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\subsection{Effects found in other countries}
\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Findings from electrification in India}
    \begin{itemize}
        \item {Increased time spent studying}
        \item {Increased school enrollment}
        \item {Increased labor supply of both men and women}
        \item {Increased per capita household income and expenditure}
    \end{itemize}
    However most of those benefits accure to wealthier households, while poorer households use electricity to a limited extent.
\end{frame}

\subsection{Optimal strategy for electrification in Kenya}
\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Optimal strategy for electrification in Kenya}
    Extensive spatial mapping of existing energy infrastructure in Kenya found that:
    \begin{itemize}
        \item{Renewable energy plays a pivotal role in decentralized energy systems allowing energy access in rural areas.}
        \item{Solar power should dominate remote areas separated more than 10km form the grid.}
        \item{Solar generation could make electricity available to 5.98 million people.}
        \item{Hybrid mini-grids could electrify additional 390 thousand people.}
        \item{Diesel generators could cover 390 thousand people.\footnote{Maintenance \& operational costs are significant for a long term solution.}}
        \item{It is cheaper to invest in standalone solar solution for "under-grid"~population.}
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\section{Conclusions}
\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Findings}
    \begin{figure}[ht!]
        \includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{fig/regression.png}
        \caption{Scatter plot with regression line showing the relationship between electricity access and the share of renewable electricity in Kenya.}
        \label{fig:regression}
    \end{figure}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Findings}
    \begin{itemize}
        \item{\bf{R-squared:}} The coefficient of determination for the regression model is \(R^2 = 0.704\), indicating a strong relationship between the variables.
        \item{\bf{Correlation Coefficients:}} 
        \begin{itemize}
            \item{\bf{Electricity access and share of renewables:}} \(r = 0.834\), showing a strong positive correlation.
            \item{\bf{Electricity access and GDP growth:}} \(r = 0.048\), indicating a weak correlation.
            \item{\bf{GDP growth and share of renewables:}} \(r = 0.125\), also a weak correlation.
        \end{itemize}
        \item{\bf{Electricity Access Coefficient:}} The regression coefficient is 0.561, statistically significant with \(\textrm{p-value} < 0.0001\).
        \item{\bf{GDP Growth Coefficient:}} The regression coefficient is 0.177, not statistically significant with \(\textrm{p-value} = 0.505\).
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Conclusions}
    While the expansion of renewables correlated with electricity acces in Kenya, there still are problems with expansion of electricity access in Kenya, however
    \begin{itemize}
        \item the absence of fossil fuels is not one of them,
        \item they relate to economically inefficient use and
        \item further research and revision of government plans is needed.
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}
\end{document}